A word on casualties

If you hadn't heard by now, the surge is working, all is well and the some of the troops will be coming home within the next year and a half.

Okay, first off, to the dip shit who works for the Washington Times and thinks, or is at least trying to convince his readers, that the Democratic Party is some kind of branch of the "Green International", I will only remind you that the Democratic Leadership is responsible or partially responsible for such things in recent history as this, this, and this. For the last time, they are not a left-wing party! They have a few leftists who've decided to affect the system from the inside, but if you look at the DLC's platform you'll find something more or less similar to the New Labor platform in the UK. What is with this seeing every liberal as a latent Marxist? THERE'S A DIFFERENCE AND IT IS FAIRLY VAST, STOP USING THE TERMS INTERCHANGEABLY!

Anyway, now that we've got that out of the way, back to the surge. The main argument that surge proponents are using to justify their pre-emptive claims of victory are the newest casualty metrics. First, there is the problem of using casualties as a signal that you've won or lost. In Fourth Generation Warfare strategic objectives are almost entirely defined by social progress. If you can get the electricity on and water flowing despite the ongoing violence, you win. The difficulty of doing this is the reason why Fourth Generation wars tilt to the guerrilla side over 80% of the time.

Second, there is the problem of the numbers being presented by the papers and broadcasts of record. According to the most recent numbers from the New York Times' Michael Gordon we would be led to believe that fewer than 500 Iraqi civilians were killed in October and November. What Gordon doesn't tell you, like his counterparts at CNN, CBS and Fox, is where he got those numbers from. They are all using the data provided by the Iraq Coalition Casualties Project which I have a link to on the right hand side of this page. What's wrong with using that data? Only this little disclaimer at the top of the Civilian Casualties page, in blue text, for all to see. It isn't a complete data set. Why isn't a complete data set? Because they are hamstrung by choosing to report only incidents verified both my the media and coalition forces. Given that coalition forces are generally more concerned with keeping order than investigating each individual death it shouldn't surprise anyone that such a data set would be well under the actual totals.

For comparison we can look at the most conservative count that can purport to be reasonable at all, Iraq Body Count. As we can see on the iCasualties page linked above, there have been 257 tallied civilian deaths as of December 13. If we go over to Iraq Body Count's incident report page and take out our handy dandy calculator, we'll add up the total deaths as verified by multiple media and health organization outlets and come up with...440? But the Times and Nightly News are using iCasualties, shouldn't that... No, it shouldn't. Once again the news sources of record have failed miserably at math and intelligence gathering and unintentionally bolstered the administration and its supporters. By relying too much on military reporting and not enough on independently operating sources they've screwed up again and left an administration that should have long exhausted its credibility with yet more breathing space and clout with which to pummel the inept opposition some more. You're welcome gang.

Ron Paul: Demon Ob/Gyn of Fleet Street?

By now most have probably heard that Ron Paul has been receiving endorsements from a few white supremacist groups, including the rather infamous neo-Nazi Stormfront.

For most cool-headed observers this won't come as a surprise given that Paul is an invisibly small government, strict territorial sovereignty conservative like most of the members of these groups. However, and perhaps this shouldn't come as a surprise, but most of the media, mainstream or otherwise is not so cool-headed about these things. Some, not that I'd name names, are even very eager to run wild with conspiracy theories about the Paul campaign while other use the the endorsement as proof that all disagreement with neo-conservatives is thinly veiled anti-semitism. Of course liberal and left bloggers, probably jealous of the insanely successful guerrilla campaign Paul has waged these past six months, have chimed in their two cents about this matter and ardent Paul supporter Justin Raimondo has taken them to task for it.

Of course, this is all patently stupid. Yes, as a left-winger myself I do happen to believe in the concept of "blood money" and there are just certain people and institutions I would never take favors from even if I had earned them. But, Paul isn't a lefty. He doesn't think of campaign cash the way someone more politically oriented in my direction might. And hell, once you realize that Paul is willing to take money from a Star Wars loving white supremacist as quickly as an abortion performing doctor (he has never returned a contribution this campaign), and you also note that Paul is, how do the kids say it, Pro-life, you might notice that a donation from Stormfront does not necessarily mean Paul is a racist.

Jesus Christ, it's called consistency in principles.

Why the NIE doesn't really matter

By now, anyone who'd ever read a political blog knows that a new Nation Intelligence Estimate came out Monday declaring the already obvious fact that Iran was not even close to being an existential threat to the "Free World" and Israel. Granted, it had nothing to do with Iran's undiversified, sinking economy, its ostensibly pro-Western youth population (amounting to upwards of 60% of the population), or its mostly guerrilla army who works with Hezbollah and other radical Shiite groups because it, rightly or wrongly, genuinely sees them as defensive in nature. No, the most recent NIE, which you can read for yourself here, came to the conclusion that Iran (to the best of our "intelligence") had in fact scrapped the nuclear weapons program it probably couldn't afford in the first place and decided to pursue enrichment only for the future benefits nuclear power may provide. Of course, the Russians have sold the Iranian's fuel and would probably be willing to again, which calls into question why the Iranians would have to enrich centrifuges at all, but even that would still require the administration to justify an attack on Iran without the support of fabricated intelligence. But, for all that, there is a good chance none of this will matter.

First off, just for arguments sake, there is always the possibility that, despite the neocons who infect this administration like a virus, Condi Rice has more influence than many give her credit for and the foreign policy establishment knows exactly what it's doing. There is always the possibility that in the face of the disastrous decision to invade Iraq the slightly (and the emphasis is important) more traditionally conservative wing of the state and defense departments has won over the president's ear and whenever Bush ratchets up the language about World War III it is just part of a repeating cycle of diplomatic chicken games, going on and on until Iran stops defecting. If that is the case then Secretary Rice may yet save her reputation and not be doomed to the same disgraceful legacy as Madeline Albright and Colin Powell, too fearful of their bosses' ambition to take a stand when everything was on the line and, for once in his life David Brooks will be right. The problem is, I don't think any of that is the case.

More than likely, the administration is too invested, has put too many resources toward a final resolution to pull up now. More importantly however, so have too many supporters of this disastrous, stupid, imperial Near East policy. And it's not just the right-wing fun bunch or the neo-conservatives or Joseph McCarthy's ghost either. The liberal media, in their all-knowing humanism have put too much into getting the next war as well and I can't imagine that a little bit of intelligence from the same admittedly blundering agencies responsible for this, this and this among other things, will make them change their tune. Of course all of this represents an entrenched imperial mentality on the part of our foreign policy and media establishments that set in long ago regarding national security. Caught up in a viscous Machiavellian circle where the only way to ensure safety is to dictate other's agendas because everybody is way too mad at us for dictating their agendas in the first place, the American Empire has been on the march for decades because it has evolved into the organic self-sustaining effort all free and democratic nations should fear. The Iran "thing" isn't over, not by a long shot.

Update: It seems that no one who can change course on Iran has even given the newest NIE a second thought. Good to know that Sarkozy is as predictable as ever.

Update II: The other thing about all of this that would amuse me if not for the reasons why, is that by playing the fool and acting like he hadn't heard a whiff of this intelligence until just two weeks ago, the President of the United States has managed to look like a bigger asshole than a guy who held a Holocaust denier's convention.

Currently looking to create a team of dedicated bloggers who want to push a progressive agenda. Email me if you're interested. tylerarp@gmail.com

Waterboarding Firsthand

First, read this:

A Lesson For Mukasey: Why I Had Myself Water-Boarded

Then, watch this:

http://current.com/items/86417301_kaj_larsen_goes_waterboarding

I've been very busy so here's a compilation of interesting videos and a few other things to set the mood:

Please visit: http://makethestand.com/

Please follow this link and watch: ZEITGEIST, The Movie

and: The Secret History of Impending War with Iran









Turn off the music on this last one or it will ruin it for you:

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Dick In a Nutshell

All you ever wanted to know, even if you didn't know it yet, about Richard Cheney.

Both Dick and I are from WY, so believe me when I say this shit be pertinent.

Thanks Frontline.

From The Dark Side:

"Amid revelations about faulty prewar intelligence and a scandal surrounding the indictment of the vice president's chief of staff and presidential adviser, I. Lewis "Scooter" Libby, FRONTLINE goes behind the headlines to investigate the internal war that was waged between the intelligence community and Richard Bruce Cheney, the most powerful vice president in the nation's history."

From Cheney's Law:

"For three decades Vice President Dick Cheney conducted a secretive, behind-closed-doors campaign to give the president virtually unlimited wartime power. Finally, in the aftermath of 9/11, the Justice Department and the White House made a number of controversial legal decisions. Orchestrated by Cheney and his lawyer David Addington, the department interpreted executive power in an expansive and extraordinary way, granting President George W. Bush the power to detain, interrogate, torture, wiretap and spy -- without congressional approval or judicial review."

Band-aids For Int'l Whoopsies

Band-aids for Int'l Whoopsies. Ed might really appreciate that. ;[

Ed Brown Nearly Martyred

Heroic Ed and Elaine Brown caught my eye with this Raw Story article dated June 7, 2007.

I kept my eye open and only caught one article claiming that supporters had begun to rally and camp at the Brown household. I didn't doubt it.

All quiet until this IHT (I'm not sure who broke the story) article was posted online on October 4th.

And silence. I stumbled upon and "Official Ed Brown Blog" which speculated on whether or not they were alive.

Well it turns out they are - and they're not well. Have you been worried about torture here on US soil? I have been - and you know now that you better watch your ass. The live audio from the phone interview is available at the "Official: Ed Brown Video Blog". It's some of the most terrifying and thought provoking conversation I've ever heard. Just sickening.

If you're wondering what being "dieseled around" is, check out this link.

Poor, poor Ed and Elaine (if you have the free time - go ahead and update this).

... my heart goes out.

And remember, they can do it to you too, nation.

Thanks for citing your sources, coporate media

I remember being called crazy for suggesting this to a work group a while back. However, the truth has finally came out. I never thought I would say this, but thank you FCC.

Just another told-ya-so moment.

Sound Sonata

Posted a new song. Again.

I'm on a roll.

It's settled

So now we know who the ultimate authority is. Who will protect the army from Blackwater? Not me.

Who will protect Blackwater from me?

Seventeen for crying out loud

We have had seventeen interglacial periods; these are the ten thousand year long intervals between the last four 40 to 100 thousand year long ice ages our planet has experienced. This is a fact. It has been ten thousand years before the start of the current interglacial period. This is also a fact.

The amount of CO2 here on Earth determines the extent of the greenhouse effect; atmospheric conditions determined in part by variable CO2 levels and solar radiation patterns are certainly not finitely predictable over a very long period of time; but there has been a rhythmically predictable pattern to terrestrial temperatures for about the last 1.2 million years. That is a fact.

Beginning in the 16th century there began a Little Ice Age which very well could be interpreted as a sign of the coming ice age. What saved us? It seems to be both solar patterns and huge increases in CO2 and methane in our atmosphere.

If there is another ice age, we will probably not survive as a species. At least all the poor people in third world countries; and all the poor people in capitalist countries. Probably.

Support global warming.

WAOTD

The Eleusinian Mysteries were a series of initiation rituals that every Greek and Roman name you know, emperors and all, went through.
These guys say it was all one big acid trip. (Note Albert Hoffman.)

Octaplast

Today, in honor of the administrations ultimate victory in the second to last battleground for civil rights, I uploaded a new song onto the truckbed of the internets.



It's called Octoplast because that's what if feels like to be waterboarded. Sucks to be an extrajudicial prisoner.

Stay Vector

A very interesting documentary featuring a man who pirated NASA space shuttle video feeds for over five years; the man who did it, Martyn Stubbs, documents thousands of instances of unexplainable phenomena from live footage and shares his findings here.
Try not to crap yourself.

Taken with an extraterrestrial grain of salt.

Heffalumps and Woozles

Tomorrow, I will be attending the Albuquerque International Balloon Festival. It is the biggest festival of its kind and reputed to be the most photographed single event in the world; so I'm taking my Canon A1, some UC and Delta, and we'll see where I get. Just thought I'd share.

There are some interesting, and enlightening, pictures and movies available...

UPDATE:
Almost as much hot air as the RNC. Pretty neat.

WAOTD

A tasty Wikipedia article:

Allegations of state terrorism committed by the United States

St. Lowery

For gov't priorities, follow the money.

Thanks for the wonderful commentary, Rude Pundit.

Senate approves $150B in war funding; "Pentagon Issues Blackwater New $92 Million Contract" at Think Progress; We know GWB "doesn't care about black people", and now we can add kid's health to his list. This should make you madder than a Holocaust survivor; or a gay Iranian.

Telling it like it is:

"For war billions more but no more for the poor."
- Dr./ Rev. Joseph Lowery

More on the good Reverend at Blast the Right, podcast number 29.

Re: Re: UNCLASSIFIED////

Evidence to support my claim:

See, some Blackwater manager earns more than double what general Petraeus does: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/09/30/AR2007093001352.html
Thanks again,
Tyler

Re: UNCLASSIFIED////

I wrote back to the good SGT:

Sir,

I just don't know what to say. I've talked with a number of military representatives, both there in Lincoln and now here in Santa Fe. I have a strong history of significant military involvement and accomplishment in my family, especially during WWII, sure; but a lot has changed since then.

Honestly, if I were a proponent of using violence over diplomacy as a way to establish stability in the major oil supplying countries - I would certainly join Blackwater. The pay's better, and, unlike what we're to believe about our military, Blackwater cannot be held accountable! http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=6849 & http://rawstory.com/news/afp/Blackwater_guards_fired_unprovoked__09302007.html. Good news for the good guys. But, as with most things, we're slowly moving away from that which holds us back: http://www.theaircar.com/ & http://www.zapworld.com/. I do suspect, however, that it isn't oil that's important to the US, but rather the profits gained from the processing and sale of oil products.

Surely I would be needed in Iraq, but I just read a news piece that names a few US Generals who actually oppose the re-colonization of Iraq: http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=6920. The British had their turn, now we have ours! What I like is that Venezuela has offered oil and gas to low-income neighborhoods for heat and electricity at an incredibly reduced rate, something like fifty bucks a barrel.

Most significantly, I don't believe in any use of an offensive military; none at all. I think that those people who willingly help an offensive military (knowingly or unknowingly) are the worst moral deviant sinners our great land has ever had the good opportunity to support. Think about this: if we had been giving two billion dollars a day to a pro-democratic regime in Iraq, rather than spending it militarily, that person/group could have toppled Saddam purely with the resources that would have been available to them.

And what's this I hear about some guy named Bremmer taking out all the social-justice measures in the Iraqi constitutional draft? That's just plain evil.

The problem I think I've run into is that I'm a socialist - not a communist - a socialist. I would describe myself as a Anti-Authoritarian Anti-Republic Democratic Socialist. These beliefs are fundamental to who I am, and because I firmly believe in anti-authoritarianism, how could I endorse a pre-emptive military? How could I contribute to an ultimately oppressive force like that?

And what about Iran? I've heard civilian death toll in Iraq is something like eighty-one thousand on the most conservative estimates http://www.iraqbodycount.org/. I have to think about this when I wake up; when I get ready for work; when I come home; while I eat dinner; while I go to school... How many innocent people will we kill in Iran? And will we use nuclear weapons (outside of DU)? This saddens me so. Can we justify this?

Why does Israel get nukes? Why does the UK, France, China, Russia, India and Pakistan get nukes? I'm more scared of Israel than I am of Iran. And do we know without a shadow of a doubt that Iran has or is planning for nukes outside of electricity? Like we knew Saddam had WMD (well, we did, but they were the ones we sold them that they forgot about and we couldn't find later)?

What about women's rights in Saudi Arabia? Why haven't we issued sanctions against them? None of this adds up and I am always searching for answers. If the liberal media is so liberal, why don't they discuss these things? Why can I only find solace with the progressive peace movement?

Why am I uninsured? I work fourty-eight hours a week and am full time in school? If I lived in, literally, any other industrialized nation I wouldn't have to worry about getting sick.

There are just so many things that I see wrong with this country, why does our military even worry about solving problems in other countries?

Often, when approached by the military, I have asked many of these questions, and sure you're reading all of it in its most tangential state; I don't have the time to go connect all of it properly, but they are all things I have to consider when I'm asked to enlist.

If you could answer these questions for me, and please, tell me what you thought about before you enlisted, I would love to read it.

Thank you so much for your time,
Forever patriotic,
Tyler

Aggressive Progressive

"Presidential campaigns aggressively competed for dollars up to the last minute of the third quarter, eager to build their bank accounts for an expensive stretch of media advertising and voter outreach." Thanks for the news, Huffington Post!

These candidates aren't important - but their checkbooks are. Imagine if we raised hundreds of millions to feed the 30,000 children that die every day across the world from hunger and preventable disease. But hey, they die so we can watch Fox on broadcast; so we can buy a double bacon cheeseburger for only $1.99; they die so we can work ever so slightly less - unless you're poor here too.

More on this from Blast the Right; check out podcast numbers 61 and 60 for more on this.

What is the statistic? Something like, the richest 400 adults in America possess as much wealth as the poorest 54 million. Go look it up and then get angry.

UNCLASSIFIED////

I got this email a few days ago...

UNCLASSIFIED////
U.S. ARMY RECRUITING STATION
505 N 27th Street, Suite 10
Lincoln, NE 68503

Dear :

You are probably not aware that college students have a unique opportunity to pay off their college loans, train in a job of their choice, with the offer guaranteed in writing by the U.S. Army.

The Army offers college students their choice of more than 150 jobs. Qualified students can start their training for the job of their choice when the class becomes available. Students who face an uncertain future in today’s complex society are finding the guarantee of skill training and getting their outstanding loans paid during an enlistment increasingly attractive. Army training includes the most modern teaching and learning methods using some of the most advanced high-tech equipment available.

As part of your Army training we’ll help you develop not only your skill capabilities, but also your confidence, leadership abilities and your self-esteem -- qualities which provide an edge in today’s highly competitive civilian job market.

Many college students just like you are turning to the Army because it ensures they will get exactly what they want: their choice of job skill guaranteed in writing, a good income and benefits, medical insurance, and 30 days paid vacation earned each year. Also, with the GI Bill plus the Army College Fund, you may qualify for $70,000 to use for continuing your education or up to $65,000 to repay your existing college debt.

I hope this letter has answered any questions you had about what the Army can help you accomplish in life. But if you have any other questions, or you would like to see which job skill suits you, please do not hesitate to call me at 402-742-3339.

Sincerely,
Edward Moore
Staff Sergeant, U.S. Army

UNCLASSIFIED////