Why the NIE doesn't really matter

By now, anyone who'd ever read a political blog knows that a new Nation Intelligence Estimate came out Monday declaring the already obvious fact that Iran was not even close to being an existential threat to the "Free World" and Israel. Granted, it had nothing to do with Iran's undiversified, sinking economy, its ostensibly pro-Western youth population (amounting to upwards of 60% of the population), or its mostly guerrilla army who works with Hezbollah and other radical Shiite groups because it, rightly or wrongly, genuinely sees them as defensive in nature. No, the most recent NIE, which you can read for yourself here, came to the conclusion that Iran (to the best of our "intelligence") had in fact scrapped the nuclear weapons program it probably couldn't afford in the first place and decided to pursue enrichment only for the future benefits nuclear power may provide. Of course, the Russians have sold the Iranian's fuel and would probably be willing to again, which calls into question why the Iranians would have to enrich centrifuges at all, but even that would still require the administration to justify an attack on Iran without the support of fabricated intelligence. But, for all that, there is a good chance none of this will matter.

First off, just for arguments sake, there is always the possibility that, despite the neocons who infect this administration like a virus, Condi Rice has more influence than many give her credit for and the foreign policy establishment knows exactly what it's doing. There is always the possibility that in the face of the disastrous decision to invade Iraq the slightly (and the emphasis is important) more traditionally conservative wing of the state and defense departments has won over the president's ear and whenever Bush ratchets up the language about World War III it is just part of a repeating cycle of diplomatic chicken games, going on and on until Iran stops defecting. If that is the case then Secretary Rice may yet save her reputation and not be doomed to the same disgraceful legacy as Madeline Albright and Colin Powell, too fearful of their bosses' ambition to take a stand when everything was on the line and, for once in his life David Brooks will be right. The problem is, I don't think any of that is the case.

More than likely, the administration is too invested, has put too many resources toward a final resolution to pull up now. More importantly however, so have too many supporters of this disastrous, stupid, imperial Near East policy. And it's not just the right-wing fun bunch or the neo-conservatives or Joseph McCarthy's ghost either. The liberal media, in their all-knowing humanism have put too much into getting the next war as well and I can't imagine that a little bit of intelligence from the same admittedly blundering agencies responsible for this, this and this among other things, will make them change their tune. Of course all of this represents an entrenched imperial mentality on the part of our foreign policy and media establishments that set in long ago regarding national security. Caught up in a viscous Machiavellian circle where the only way to ensure safety is to dictate other's agendas because everybody is way too mad at us for dictating their agendas in the first place, the American Empire has been on the march for decades because it has evolved into the organic self-sustaining effort all free and democratic nations should fear. The Iran "thing" isn't over, not by a long shot.

Update: It seems that no one who can change course on Iran has even given the newest NIE a second thought. Good to know that Sarkozy is as predictable as ever.

Update II: The other thing about all of this that would amuse me if not for the reasons why, is that by playing the fool and acting like he hadn't heard a whiff of this intelligence until just two weeks ago, the President of the United States has managed to look like a bigger asshole than a guy who held a Holocaust denier's convention.